During the 4th quarter of 2008 the world’s carriers will provide 59.7 million fewer seats than in the same period in 2007, according to analyst company OAG (Official Airline Guide). This is a 7% drop both in the number of flights and seat capacity in the period.
The US domestic market will account for just under 20 million of that figure, or 33% of the global decline in capacity, in what could turn out to be the most far-reaching crisis to hit the aviation industry in recent memory.
The transatlantic route however is showing growth, albeit at a much slower rather than a year ago, with flights up by 1% and capacity up by 2%.
Many airports will be severely affected by cuts announced by airline operations: based on current filed schedules, 275 around the world are losing scheduled air service altogether. Of these 32 are in the US and 116 are in the Asia Pacific region.
OAG also maintains a world fleet data base and has adjusted its 10 year forecast of the global scheduled aircraft fleet to shrink by more than 3500, as a result of high jet fuel prices and to reflect the impact of these capacity cuts.
Deliveries of new units are expected to be reduced by 744 and near term firm orders are being pushed back rather than cancelled.
